2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Linebackers

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They are free to roam the middle of the field, looking to lay the lumber on the ball-carriers and receivers that dare to enter their domain. The job of the linebacker is to be instinctual, to be in the right place at the right time and deliver punishing hits.

Here are the top linebackers in the FBS heading into the 2010 season.

INSIDE LBS:

GREG JONES, MICHIGAN STATE

While this Spartan looks a little small for a linebacker (6-1, 228), there is no denying that he plays much bigger and is regarded among the best in the country. Jones has earned All-American honors in each of his first three seasons at MSU, including being named a consensus first-team member in 2009. The 2009 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year finished third in the nation in tackles (154), with 13.5 TFLs and nine sacks. The ultimate defensive playmaker Jones heads into his senior season ranked eighth on the school's all-time tackles list (359). The Spartans may not be lifting the Big Ten trophy at the end of the season, but that won't stop the accolades from raining down on Jones.

QUAN STURDIVANT, NORTH CAROLINA

On one of the best defenses in the entire country, Sturdivant stands out as the leader. Perhaps the most NFL-ready LB heading into the 2010 campaign, this Tar Heel has the ability to do it all. The 6-2, 230-pound senior can make plays all over the field and is rarely caught out of position. He earned First-Team All-ACC honors in 2009, finishing with 79 total tackles and 12 TFLs. UNC's offense definitely plays second-fiddle to the defense, which is chock-full of All-American talent throughout. The Tar Heels aren't ready to win the ACC, but opponents will definitely know they are in a fight week-in and week-out.

CHRIS GALIPPO, USC

Following in a long line of stellar LBs at USC, Galippo had a strong sophomore season in 2009, earning some All-American honors, while being a semifinalist for the Butkus Award. The 6-2, 250-pound middle linebacker finished last year with 70 total tackles, eight TFLs, 1.5 sacks, two interceptions and two forced fumbles. The Trojans are under new management and will begin serving a postseason ban this year, but that shouldn't prevent Galippo from once again putting up big numbers, as the team's defensive leader.

MIKE MOHAMED, CALIFORNIA

Mohamed is a veteran LB who has played in all 39 games for the Golden Bears over the last three seasons. The 6-3, 245-pounder came into his own last year, becoming a full-time starter, earning All-Pac-10 First-Team honors, leading the conference with 112 total tackles, with 8.5 TFLs, two sacks and three INTs. On quite a few preseason All-American lists, expect big things from Mohamed in 2010. The Golden Bears are always in the mix when talking about the Pac-10 title, and this senior LB will do everything in his power to keep that going.

ALEX WUJCIAK, MARYLAND

A throwback type of LB, this Maryland Terrapin just keeps getting better. Regarded as one of the top playmakers at his position in the entire country, the 6-3, 245-pound Wujciak followed up Second-Team All-ACC honors in 2008, with First-Team honors in 2009. As a junior last season, he ranked second in the ACC with a team-high 131 tackles (eighth nationally), with 8.5 TFLs and two interceptions. The Terps are not in a position to return to the top of the ACC standings, but expect to hear Wujciak's name mentioned often regardless of where Maryland finishes up.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Kelvin Sheppard (LSU), Casey Matthews (Oregon), Josh Bynes (Auburn), Tank Carder (TCU), Mario Harvey (Marshall).

OUTSIDE LBS:

MARK HERZLICH, BOSTON COLLEGE

The legend of Herzlich will follow him forever, as the standout LB, who was the ACC Player of the Year, an All-American and a finalist for the Butkus Award in 2008, missed the entire 2009 season while battling and beating a rare form of bone cancer. In 2008, he amassed 110 total tackles and led all LBs nationally with six interceptions, two of which he returned for TDs. While Herzlich is expected to play this season, it remains to be seen if he can return to form. At less than 100-percent, he will still be a driving force on the BC defense. If he makes it all the way back, he will stockpile most of the defensive awards by season's end.

TRAVIS LEWIS, OKLAHOMA

After breaking Brian Bosworth's school record for tackles by a freshman in 2008 (144 stops), the 6-2, 232-pound Lewis once again picked up All-Big 12 First-Team honors with 109 total tackles as a sophomore in 2009. As instinctual as they come at the linebacker position, the third-year Sooner might not remain in school after the 2009 campaign, as he has everything needed to excel at the next level. The Sooners took it on the chin in 2009, but expect Lewis to be one of the main reasons the team returns to form among the Big 12 elite in 2010.

BRUCE CARTER, NORTH CAROLINA

Another extremely gifted Tar Heel, the 6-3, 235-pound Carter has a complete skill set. With above-average strength, speed and athleticism, this senior will surely be mentioned among the best OLBs in the country. Carter has started 33 career games, including all 13 as a junior in 2009, where he racked up 65 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, two sacks and an interception returned for a TD, en route to All-ACC Second-Team honors. If he stays healthy, it will be difficult to keep him off the First Team this season.

VON MILLER, TEXAS A&M

The first Aggie to be tabbed a First-Team All-American since cornerback Jason Webster in 1999, the 6-3, 240-pound Miller led the nation in sacks (17), while amassing 21 TFLs. Miller is regarded as a hybrid player, who can also line up along the defensive front with his hand on the ground. He projects to be a big- time pass rushing threat in a 3-4 system in the NFL. The Aggies aren't exactly stacked with All-American talent throughout the roster, but Miller is as good as it gets at his position.

ROSS HOMAN, OHIO STATE

The linebacker position at Ohio State has become a launching pad for many a talented player of late, and this year may be no different. Compared favorably to 2007 Butkus Award winner James Laurinaitis, the 6-0, 227-pound Homan may just carve out an award-winning career in Columbus as well. As a junior in 2009, Homan was a Second-Team All-Big Ten member, racking up a team-high 108 total tackles. With above-average speed and playmaking ability, the sky is the limit for this Buckeye, as he should be a driving force in Ohio State's run toward a Big Ten title and perhaps much more.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Akeem Ayers (UCLA), Michael Morgan (USC), Chris Walker (Tennessee), Wayne Daniels (TCU), Lawrence Wilson (UConn).

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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