Cubs' Lilly to make possible showcase start against Astros

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Slumping lefty Ted Lilly faces a team against which he's had career-long success tonight, when the Chicago Cubs meet the Houston Astros in the second test of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.

In Monday's opener, Ryan Theriot hit his first home run of the season and Carlos Silva worked five innings to push Chicago past Houston, 5-2.

Theriot finished with a pair of hits and Alfonso Soriano doubled twice, scored a run and drove in a run to lift the Cubs to their third win in four games.

Silva (10-4) yielded a lone run on five hits while walking one and fanning four for Chicago. Carlos Marmol worked a scoreless ninth inning to preserve the win and earn his 19th save of the season.

Wesley Wright (0-1) absorbed the loss in his second big-league start after giving up four runs on eight hits over five innings. He walked one and struck out four for the Astros, who have dropped three out of four.

Lilly, rumored to be a hot commodity on the trade market as the non-waiver transaction deadline approaches at the end of the month, has won seven of eight decisions in 11 career starts against Houston while maintaining a stingy 2.36 earned run average in 72 1/3 innings.

He pitched well enough for an eighth win when facing the Astros in his most recent start on July 21, scattering seven hits and allowing a single run in 7 1/3 innings of a game the Cubs eventually lost, 4-3, at Wrigley Field.

The tough-luck no-decision is part of a recent rough stretch for the 34-year- old Californian, who is winless in four starts since defeating Pittsburgh on June 29. He's 0-2 with two no-decisions in the subsequent efforts, while allowing 28 hits and 20 runs in 24 2/3 innings.

A 1996 draft pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Lilly is 1-4 in seven road starts this season.

Houston counters with red-hot right-hander Brett Myers, who by contrast, has not lost since June 29.

The 29-year-old Jacksonville product, who'll turn 30 next month, has beaten St. Louis and Pittsburgh and racked up a pair of no-decisions in his last four starts, while giving up just 19 hits and six runs in 28 2/3 innings.

Myers also got a tough-luck no-decision after facing Lilly in the aforementioned July 21 game at Wrigley, allowing five hits and a run with eight strikeouts in seven innings in Houston's one-run win. He's pitched at least seven innings in three straight starts and has struck out 17 batters while walking just three.

Lifetime against the Cubs, Myers is 8-3 with a pair of complete games and a 2.52 ERA in 85 2/3 innings. He's unbeaten so far in 2010 at home, having gone 5-0 in nine starts.

Houston has won six of 10 matchups with the Cubs this season.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.