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09/17/2007 - Shanghai, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States needs to earn at least a draw against Nigeria on Tuesday to escape the "Group of Death" and advance to the quarterfinals.
While a draw would be enough to ensure the United States moved on to the next round, it could also result in a quarterfinal game against defending champion Germany.
For the United States to avoid that quarterfinal, it has to pull out of a tie with North Korea for the top spot in Group B. After the teams played to a 2-2 draw, both posted 2-0 victories in their second games of the group stage.
The United States is in good position, facing the "weakest" team in the group but the game could be played in poor conditions with Typhoon Wipha headed to Shanghai. There was talk about moving the game, but no change was made as of Monday evening.
If the United States and North Korea, which plays Sweden on Tuesday, both win or tie it would come down to tiebreakers to determine the group winner. Right now, the teams are equal on every tiebreaker except fair play, which is total cards received in the tournament. North Korea has one more card.
The easiest way for the Americans to avoid falling to second is to post a big win against Nigeria. Simply, if both games end with the same result - win or tie - the United States has to score more goals in its game to win the group.
Not only would that scenario suit the Americans well, but it would also boost the team's confidence after a couple so-so performances, according to captain Kristine Lilly.
"We are looking forward to (the Nigeria) game, making some things happen and play better soccer overall," Lilly said. "I think we need to play the game more, keep the ball on the ground (and) we have to attack teams, especially Nigeria. We have to go after them and make them be back on their heels and defend."
The United States had trouble in its opener in Chengdu against North Korea in a steady rain. North Korea proved it was a contender with its performance, but the rain cost the United States one goal when goalie Hope Solo had a ball slip through her hands.
The forecast for Shanghai on Tuesday is a 90 percent chance of heavy rains - which means bring your umbrella - and the field at Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium is already torn up from four previous games in the last seven days.
Regardless of the conditions, the top-ranked Americans are a heavy favorite.
However, Nigeria proved with its 1-1 draw against third-ranked Sweden its a team that can't be overlooked. Nigeria is led by 2006 FIFA Player of the Year nominee and reigning African Woman Footballer of the Year Cynthia Uwak, who scored against Sweden.
The African champions have a lot of skill, great athleticism and enough speed that they'd "make a great track team," U.S. coach Greg Ryan said.
"Our approach has been that with each team we face," Ryan said, "we have to adjust in order to bring out our best qualities and try to limit theirs."
According to Lilly and many of the other U.S. players, the team hasn't shown its best qualities yet. The United States allowed two goals to North Korea but both of those came when the team was down a player with Abby Wambach in the locker room getting stitches to close a gash on her head.
Wambach had one goal in the opener and scored both goals in the 2-0 win over Sweden. But the team again felt it didn't play its best game.
It shouldn't take a great game to beat Nigeria, but the United States' best effort should leave no doubt about the outcome of the group.
Nigeria and Sweden each still have a chance to advance, but must win by at least three goals.
The second-place team plays Germany on Saturday. The winner of Group B also plays Saturday against England, which posted a win and two ties in the group stage, including a 0-0 draw with Germany.
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Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.
New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.
His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.
HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.
The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.
RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.
First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.
The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.
These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.
New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.
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In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.
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