Last Second Score Deals Villanova Loss in Wild Opener

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Once again it came down to a field goal.

Last year, Villanova kicker Nick Yako was afforded the opportunity to be the hero as he drilled a 32-yard field goal as time expired, giving Villanova a 27-24 win in the inaugural Mayor's Bowl at Lincoln Financial Field.

This year Temple kicker Brandon McManus was afforded that same chance, and like Yako the year before, he delivered in helping the Owls take a 31-24 victory.

This game had more twists and turns than an eight-foot python.

On the second play of the fourth quarter, Villanova quarterback Chris Whitney connected with Norman White for a 21-yard touchdown, giving 'Nova a 21-13 lead.

Following the touchdown, Villanova's offense dipped into a serious lull.

"I think their level went up and I think that we just tailed off some in the second half," said Villanova head coach Andy Talley. "I thought that we played better than they did in the first half and then suddenly they woke up and played a strong second half."

Temple's defense was indeed strong. Villanova went without a score for nearly 13 minutes in the fourth quarter. During that span, McManus hit a 40-yard field goal and quarterback Chester Stewart delivered a 62-yard strike to Michael Campbell, giving Temple a 22-21 lead with 4:07 remaining.

Villanova appeared down, but, as Temple head coach Al Golden knows, the reigning FCS champions are difficult to knock out.

"When you have that many veterans that do nothing but win over the last two or three years, which they have, they are tough to beat," said Golden in a post- game interview.

Villanova had certainly been on a roll, winning its previous nine contests dating back to October 10th, 2009. But with 3:30 to play, and Temple churning the ground and the clock to pulp, 'Nova's streak was in definite jeopardy.

Enter Stewart, who had been turnover-free until coughing up the football with 2:25 to play on his own 25-yard line.

Yako subsequently drilled the 41-yard field goal, giving Villanova a 24-22 lead, and with 1:51 to play it appeared Temple was now the team on the ropes.

Fittingly, in a city known for its beloved, browbeaten, ultimate survivor, Rocky, Stewart and Temple dragged themselves off the mat once more and executed a 46-yard drive which resulted in McManus' game-winning field goal, a 43-yarder that came with three seconds remaining.

"Obviously he won the game for us," Golden said of Stewart. "We had a quarterback that won in the two-minute drill. This time he did it after he made a critical error."

Although this was a tough one for 'Nova, Talley was sure to keep it in perspective.

"I think we played about as hard as we could," Talley said. "We had our chances and we had our opportunities to win the game and it sort of slipped away there at the end. I think we played as well as we could at this point in the season."

Talley makes a valid point. With other teams in The Sportsbook Betting Lines/Fathead.com FCS Top 25 taking on inferior opponents in week 1, Villanova confronted a Temple team that went 9-4 last season and played in its first bowl game in 30 years.

Still, it must be tough, as last year's thrilling Mayor's Cup victory acted as a springboard to a Villanova FCS championship season.

Last year's win over Temple was Villanova's first victory over an FBS opponent in its last six attempts. Previously, 'Nova's last FBS victory had come in 2003, over, guess who, Temple.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, what last year Temple giveth, this year Temple taketh away.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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