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07/16/2010 - Reno, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Robert Garrigus fired a seven-under 65 on Friday to join first-round leader Matt Bettencourt in a share of first after the second round of the Reno-Tahoe Open.
Garrigus and Bettencourt, who bogeyed his last two for a four-under 68, are knotted atop the leaderboard at 10-under 134 at the Montreux Golf & Country Club.
John Mallinger managed a five-under 67 and is alone in third at minus-eight.
Bob Heintz (68), Bill Lunde (68), John Merrick (68) and Kevin Stadler (67) are tied for fourth place at seven-under 137.
They are chasing a pair of co-leaders, both of whom have never won on the PGA Tour. This week provides a great chance for someone to break through for a first victory since the best players in the world are at St. Andrews for the British Open Championship.
Garrigus came very close to that maiden title earlier this year.
He famously held a three-shot lead on the 72nd hole of the St. Jude Classic, but made a disastrous triple-bogey, then lost a playoff to Lee Westwood.
When asked if it served as a learning experience, Garrigus responded, "Absolutely."
He broke into red figures at the second when he tapped in a short putt. Garrigus hit a spectacular second as the wind came up, much like it did this morning at St. Andrews.
"I kind of thought, 'Oh, it's kind of like the British Open,'" joked Garrigus. "The guys in the morning got no wind, and we're out here in the elements."
Garrigus braved those elements and continued his fine form with birdies at three and four. He played steady golf around the turn with a good save at nine and a narrowly missed birdie chance at the 10th.
Garrigus got up and down for a birdie from over the green at the par-five 11th. He knocked his tee ball to a foot to set up the easy birdie at the par- three 12th.
Garrigus once again left himself with a foot-long birdie putt, this time at the 15th. He missed a three-foot birdie chance at 16, but sank a 20-footer for birdie at the 17th. He got into the clubhouse at 10-under, then found himself tied for first when Bettencourt fumbled down the stretch.
"It was just one of those days that nothing was going wrong," said Garrigus. "I didn't make any bad swings. Not one bad swing today. It was great. Had a great day. Just one of those days, you know."
Bettencourt appeared headed toward one of those days as well.
He started on the 10th tee Friday and eagled the par-five 11th when he chipped in from off the green. Two holes later, Bettencourt stiffed his approach to a foot and kicked in the short birdie putt. He made it two in a row with a four- footer at No. 14.
Birdies at the second and fourth gave Bettencourt a fairly commanding lead. Garrigus started his run with late birdies, but Bettencourt came back to the field.
At the par-four eighth, Bettencourt landed in a bunker with his second, and the caddies in the group in front didn't rake the trap. He couldn't get on the green with his third and walked off with a bogey. Bettencourt bogeyed the par- five ninth when his four-foot save attempt stayed above ground.
"I'm fine. I'm just frustrated right now," said Bettencourt. "I don't need to work on anything. I just need to keep playing the way I'm playing and everything will be fine."
Chad Campbell, the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 93, shot a three- under 69 and is tied for eighth place with Chris DiMarco, who had a one-under 71 on Friday. The pair is knotted at minus-six.
Tournament host Scott McCarron (69) and Todd Fischer (70) share 10th at five- under 139.
NOTES: Defending champion John Rollins shot an even-par 72 and is tied for 33rd at one-under par...The 36-hole cut fell at three-over 147 and 71 players made it to the weekend...Keith Clearwater, Parker McLachlin, Andrew McLardy and Jerod Turner withdrew on Friday.
<< Strasburg, Nats open second half on winning note
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Willingham hit a three-run double in the top
of the sixth inning, and the Washington Nationals beat Florida 4-0 in the
opener of a three-game series at Sun Life Stadium.
Washington rookie phenom Steph
<< Reds open second half by edging Rockies
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bronson Arroyo pitched into the eighth
inning and Orlando Cabrera drove in two runs, as the surprising Cincinnati
Reds opened the second half of the season with a 3-2 win over Colorado at
Great A
<< Glenn shines as Tiger-Cats batter Bombers
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Glenn threw for 336 yards and three
touchdowns to lead the Hamilton Tiger-Cats to a 28-7 victory over the Winnipeg
Blue Bombers at Ivor Wynne Stadium.
DeAndra' Cobb scored on both a rush and a rece
<< Romero bounces back to pitch Jays past Orioles
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Romero tossed seven solid innings en
route to his first victory in exactly one month, as the Toronto Blue Jays held
off the Baltimore Orioles, 4-2, in the opener of a three-game set at Camden
Yards.
Wolf helps Brewers down Braves >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Randy Wolf picked up a rare win against
Atlanta, backed by two RBI apiece from sluggers Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder
in a 9-3 Brewers win at Turner Field.
Wolf (7-8) turned in six-plus solid frames,
Kouzmanoff, Gonzalez help A's top Royals >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Kouzmanoff drove in two runs and Gio
Gonzalez tossed seven innings of one-run ball, as the Oakland Athletics
handled the Kansas City Royals, 5-1, in the opener of a three-game series at
Kauffma
Mauer helps Twins hold off White Sox >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Mauer had two hits, including a big
two-run single in the eighth inning, as the Minnesota Twins held on for a 7-4
win over the Chicago White Sox in the continuation of a four-game series.
Francisco
Truck race at Gateway postponed due to power outage >>
Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A power outage at Gateway International Raceway
just outside St. Louis forced NASCAR to postpone the 200-mile Camping World
Truck Series race until 1:30 p.m. (et) Saturday.
Shortly after Kevin Harvick won
The most popular sports to bet on are NFL and college football along with NBA and NCAA basketball. There are multiple betting opportunities within those sports, beginning with the basic wager on a game’s outcome (also called betting the side). College Football Point spreads are used in both football and basketball in an attempt to even the attractiveness of each team in a match-up. ( See our article detailing how and why point spreads are made)
But you could also simply bet on the money line, or straight-up winner of the game. Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less money on the underdog to balance the action on both sides. While money line gambling is an attractive option for football and basketball bettors who only care about picking a winner, it is the primary option for those bettors who enjoy wagering on MLB baseball and individual sports like boxing, tennis, golf and racing events such as NASCAR. ( More details on playing the Money Line)
Another bet across all major team sports including football, basketball, baseball, and hockey involves wagering on the amount of scoring in a game, called an Over/Under total. For example, the Over/Under total on Super Bowl XXXIX was 48, which means a bettor could wager whether there would be more or less than 48 points scored by both teams combined in the game.
The final score of Super Bowl XXXIX was 24-21; the scoring of both teams added up to 45, which means the game went Under . So Under bettors won, and Over bettors lost.
Sports gambling doesn’t end there. Betting sides and totals are the most common wagers available everywhere, but many sportsbooks also offer future bets on big upcoming events like who will win next year’s Super Bowl and what movie will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by betting far in advance. For example, with NFL futures you often can get much higher odds on a team by betting before the season even starts. A NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl odds might be 20/1 in the preseason; but by midseason, their odds might decrease to 10/1 if they turn out to be legitimate championship contenders.
Involves one individual wager, whether it be on your team to cover the point spread, to win the game straight-up on the money line, or to go over/under the total.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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