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04/27/2010 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fantasy Stakes winner Blind Luck has been made the 6-5 morning-line favorite for Friday's $500,000 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. The race for three-year-old fillies has attracted a full field of 14.
The 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks will share the program with the $400,000 La Troienne which features 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Rachel won last year's Oaks by better than 20-lengths.
Blind Luck, winner of six of nine career starts, will break from post five with Rafael Bejarano returning in the saddle. Co-owned by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, the chestnut filly is the lone entrant listed at odds of less than 8-1.
She won the Fantasy at Oaklawn Park last month as the 1-2 favorite and has been favored in each of her last three starts. In February Blind Luck won the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita as the 1-5 favorite, but failed at 1-2 to Crisp in the Santa Anita Oaks in March when she finished third.
Blind Luck has earned more than $1 million in her career, having won last year's Oak Leaf and Hollywood Starlet. She was third to She Be Wild in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was runner-up to She Be Wild in the Eclipse Award voting for 2009 champion two-year-old filly.
Crisp, along with Tidal Pool and Amen Hallelujah, is 8-1 in the program. Trained by John Sadler, the filly will be ridden by Joel Rosario from post seven.
Crisp won the Santa Anita Oaks after beginning 2010 with a win in the Santa Ysabel and a fourth in the Las Virgenes. The Oaks will be her first start outside of California for owner Michael Talla.
In her five career starts Crisp has three wins for $252,120.
Here is the complete field for the 136th Kentucky Oaks in post position order: It's Tea Time, Alan Garcia, 15-1; Jody Slew, Miguel Mena, 30-1; Quiet Temper, Robby Albarado, 10-1; Age of Humor, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1; Blind Luck, Rafael Bejarano, 6-5; Beautician, Alex Solis, 15-1; Crisp, Joel Rosario, 8-1; Tidal Pool, Calvin Borel, 8-1; Bella Diamante, Mike Smith, 30-1; Champagne d'Oro, Martin Garcia, 30-1; Evening Jewel, Kent Desormeaux, 10-1; Ailalea, John Velazquez, 15-1; Amen Hallelujah, Julien Leparoux, 8-1 and Joanie's Catch, Paco Lopez, 30-1.
Rachel Alexandra makes her second start of the year in the $400,000 La Troienne. The four-year-old filly was second at the Fair Grounds to Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies.
The two ladies meet again on Friday with four other thoroughbreds also entered in the 1 1/16-mile race.
Owned by Stonestreet Stable and Hal McCormick, Rachel Alexandra will break from post four with regular rider Calvin Borel in the saddle.
"She's happy at Churchill," co-owner Jess Jackson said. "Lexington is her home, but Churchill is her favorite track and she's surely giving us every sign of being ready to run. She's going to need another race before she really defines herself the way she did early last year, but I think she's 85 percent to 90, maybe 95, right now."
Rachel Alexandra, trained by Steve Asmussen, has won 11 of 15 career starts with earnings of $2,988,354. She was undefeated in eight starts in 2009, including wins in the Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell and Woodward.
A stablemate of champion mare Zenyatta, Zardana will be ridden by David Flores from post three. Trained by John Shirreffs, who also has Zenyatta, Zardana is owned by Arnold Zetcher.
The six-year-old mare has won eight of 19 career starts for $428,421. Last year she won Bayakoa Handicap at Hollywood Park. Friday will be her first ever race at Churchill Downs.
Also entered in the La Troienne are Be Fair, Morena, Unrivaled Belle and Distinctive Dixie.
The Kentucky Oaks has a post-time of 5:45 p.m. (et) and the La Troienne is scheduled for 1:26 p.m. (et).
The forecast for Friday calls for partly cloudy skies with a 20 percent chance of rain and a post-time temperature near 80. There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms Saturday with temperatures around 75.
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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.
Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.
El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.
MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds.
Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.
New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.
Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''
Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
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