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08/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sooner or later the Washington Nationals would fall from grace after their hot start this month.
As Homer said to Bart during an old April Fool's episode of The Simpsons, "You couldn't fool your mother on the foolingest day of your life if you had an electrified fooling machine."
The same can be said for the Nationals in August after they opened the month with five straight wins. Then manager Manny Acta's ballclub began playing much like the NL East doormats they have always been, losing nine of the following 13 games, including a current four-game slide.
Most sports fans with a pulse could have predicted that the Nationals had no chance of making the playoffs back in April, and those bets will still stand strong when October rolls around. I also don't claim to be a genius with that assessment, but it gets pretty old watching this franchise falter in the summer heat year after year.
Washington just completed a six-game homestand against division rivals Philadelphia and New York, ending with a 1-5 record. It scored no more than four runs in each of those contests and fell to 31-34 at RFK Stadium this season.
Maybe a season-long 10-game road trip is what Acta's club needs to get back in the win column. The Nationals own an 8-10 road record since the beginning of July and will pay visits to Houston (four games), Colorado (three games) and Los Angeles (three games) with hopes of improving a 24-35 road mark.
NATS ADD PENA TO ROSTER
Nats general manager Jim Bowden liked what he saw from Wily Mo Pena while with the Cincinnati Reds and dealt for the outfielder last week. Pena and cash considerations were sent to Washington from Beantown for a player to be named.
Pena, who hit .218 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 73 games with Boston this year, made his Washington debut on Saturday at RFK Stadium against the New York Mets. Pena started in left field and went 1-for-4 with two runs scored in a 7-4 setback to the division-leading Mets. He then homered in Sunday's loss.
"He brings legitimate power," teammate Dmitri Young said of Pena. "He will complement our guys who will hit the gaps. It's just a matter of getting some playing time. "Nothing against [Ryan] Church, because Church has been doing the job all year, but ultimately Pena will make every player better."
JOHNSON WILL NOT PLAY IN '07
Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson will not play this season in order to recover from a broken right femur suffered in a collision with teammate Austin Kearns against the New York Mets on September 23 last season.
Johnson has been rehabilitating ever since and his return date was pushed back several times. Johnson also received two cortisone shots to kill the pain and, according to GM Jim Bowden, his hip has been giving him the most problems.
The slugger, who batted .290 with 23 homers and 77 RBI in 2006, was sent to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN this week and doctors discovered bursitis in the hip. It was then suggested Johnson undergo surgery to remove the rod and screw that had been inserted in the broken femur.
Johnson is expected to have the procedure done on Saturday in Washington. Doctors believe he will be ready for Spring Training next year.
WHO'S HOT
Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who owns 13 extra-base hits this month, batted .348 with five doubles and two RBI during the recent six-game homestand.
Zimmerman is hitting.333 with 16 RBI in 19 games since July 31. He owns a .310 batting average and 45 hits after the All-Star break.
WHO'S NOT
Washington catcher Brian Schneider has just a .222 batting average (4-for-20) over his last eight games.
Infielder Felipe Lopez has one hit in his past 18 at-bats after recording 21 hits over the previous 68 plate appearances.
ON DECK
The Nationals open a season-long 10-game road trip on Monday night with the first of four games against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.
They will then visit the Colorado Rockies for three games at Coors Field before opening a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.
<< Robredo wins opener at Pilot Pen
New Haven, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-seeded Spaniard Tommy Robredo was a
second-round winner Monday at the $650,000 Pilot Pen Tennis event, a final
tune-up for the U.S. Open.
Robredo handled Frenchman Marc Gicquel 6-4, 6-4 on the hardcour
<< Giants' Ortiz departs game
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Russ Ortiz
left his start in Monday's Giants-Marlins contest prior to the bottom of the
fifth inning with an undisclosed injury.
Ortiz allowed four runs in four innings,
<< Dolphins name Green starting QB
Davie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miami Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron announced
Monday that Trent Green will be behind center when the team opens the season
in Washington next month.
The 37-year-old Green beat out Cleo Lemon, who will se
<< Line of Scrimmage: Silly to Think Vick Won't Play Again
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We hold our flaming torches aloft, watch
the No. 7 jerseys smolder away on the bonfire, and do so with a certain sense
of satisfaction.
There's no justice like angry mob justice, so said Principal Skinner,
Rain postpones Cup race again >>
Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR's Nextel Cup race at the Michigan
International Speedway was postponed due to rain for the second consecutive
day. The 3M Performance 400 has been pushed back until Tuesday and the green
flag is
Beltran named NL Player of the Week >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran was
named NL Player of the Week for the period ending August 19.
The switch-hitting Beltran hit .375 with four homers and eight runs scored
in the week. The 30-
Casillas out for Spain's friendly with Greece >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid keeper Iker Casillas has been
ruled out of Spain's squad for this week's friendly against Greece after he
suffered an injury in training on Monday.
The Spanish Football Federation said t
Iowa suspends pair of players >>
Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Iowa suspended sophomore
wide receivers Dominique Douglas and Anthony Bowman for an indefinite period
of time Monday.
Both players were arrested Sunday by University of Iowa police
Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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