2009 Big Sky Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/05/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 34th-annual Big Sky Conference Tournament is set to begin this weekend, with quarterfinal action from campus sites and semifinal and championship games to be played in Ogden, Utah.

The Weber State Wildcats, by virtue of their 15-1 league ledger, captured the regular season crown and in the process, earned the top seed in the postseason, a first-round bye, and the right to host the final two rounds of the tournament. The Wildcats were dominant for much of the season, posting a 21-8 overall record, and closed out the regular season with a 12-game win streak.

Last year's tournament champion, Portland State, finished in a tie with Montana for second place in-conference at 11-5, but picked up the second-seed and the only other bye thanks to a tie-breaker. The Vikings were the only other team in the Big Sky to reach the 20-win plateau on the year (21-9) and enter this tournament with a four-game win streak in tow.

The Grizzlies picked up the third-seed and will host a quarterfinal matchup against Montana State on Saturday. Montana was 17-11 overall this year, but dropped two of its last three games to close out the regular season. The Bobcats had their ups and downs, but snuck into the postseason with the sixth and final seed in the tournament, tying Eastern Washington at 6-10 in league play, but edging out the Eagles, who did not make the cut.

The final two teams in the Big Sky Tournament are fourth-seeded Idaho State and fifth-seeded Northern Colorado. The Bengals will get a home game in the quarterfinals, thanks to a 9-7 conference mark. Idaho State, which finished 12-18 overall, was one of just four teams in the conference to post a winning record in league play, thanks to wins in five of the last six games. The Bears, who are making their first appearance in this event, picked up the fifth seed by going an even 8-8 in-conference. They bring a bit of momentum into tournament play as well, with wins in five of their last seven outings.

The winner of this event receives an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament.

The first of two quarterfinal matchups features in-state rivals Montana and Montana State. The Grizzlies are no stranger to success in this tournament, having captured six titles and posting a 25-23 overall record. However, the last championship occurred in 2006. Still, Montana has the makeup of a team that could do some damage here. The team is not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but it does play great defense, leading the conference in scoring defense (64.7 ppg), field-goal percentage defense (.420) and blocked shots (3.89 per game). The scoring pool isn't deep in Missoula this season, but there is some star power, led by Big Sky leading scorer Anthony Johnson (17.5 ppg). Jordan Hasquet (10.9 ppg) provides a second option, although Montana averages a rather pedestrian 66.1 ppg (fifth in the conference).

Montana State is also putting up just 66.1 ppg this season, so expecting a barn-burner in the quarterfinals is probably a stretch. The problem for the inconsistent Bobcats is that the defensive effort wasn't exactly top-notch either, ranking seventh in the league at 69.9 ppg. The team hasn't shot the ball very well this year, ranking eighth in the conference in field-goal percentage (.411) and dead-last in three-point accuracy (.315). Bobby Howard and Will Bynum are the top offensive threats on the team at 10.7 ppg apiece, followed by Divaldo Mbunga (10.2 ppg), who ranks second in the conference in rebounding (6.8 rpg) and fourth in field-goal percentage (.545).

The other quarterfinal matchup features Idaho State against Northern Colorado. The Bengals are led by the duo of Amorrow Morgan and Matt Stucki, who are averaging 13.7 and 12.1 ppg, respectively, to rank among the conference's top 10 scorers. Stucki is much more than a scorer though, as he leads the conference in assists (113) and ranks sixth in steals (41). The team as a whole is averaging a modest 65.6 ppg, good for just seventh in the league, while allowing 68.9 ppg, sixth in the conference.

The Bears have certainly asserted themselves in their first full season in Big Sky play and the team has done it with timely scoring. UNC ranks third in the conference in terms of offensive proficiency, averaging 70.9 ppg. The Bears have shot the ball well (.462), especially behind the arc, where they lead the conference with a 40.3 percent clip. Northern Colorado boasts of three of the conference's top 11 scorers in Jabril Banks (12.3 ppg), Will Figures (12.0 ppg) and Devon Beitzel (11.9 ppg). John Pena is a valuable role player as well at 9.0 ppg. Banks is the most versatile performer though, ranking second in the league in field-goal percentage (.635) and sixth in rebounding (5.6 rpg).

Weber State is the most decorated team in the Big Sky postseason, having won eight tournament titles, while amassing a 34-23 mark in this event all-time. The Wildcats not only get to play their postseason games at home this year, but will also get the lowest remaining seed after the quarterfinal smoke clears. It has been balanced play at both ends of the floor that earned the Wildcats the regular season crown. Weber State ranks second in the Big Sky in both scoring and scoring defense, averaging 71.2 ppg, while allowing just 66.2. In addition, WSU ranked first in the league in free-throw shooting (.732). Kellen McCoy is the top offensive option for the Wildcats at 14.1 ppg. He is joined in double figures by Damian Lillard (11.7 ppg), with Daviin Davis (9.9 ppg), Steve Panos (9.7 ppg) and Kyle Bullinger (9.1 ppg) not far behind.

Portland State will await the highest remaining seed after the quarterfinals are completed. The Vikings have just one tournament title to their credit, but that came last season with a 67-51 decision against Northern Arizona. The defending tournament champs are also strong offensively, ranking first in the conference at 74.1 ppg. The Vikings also excel on the boards, tied with Montana State for the top spot in the league with 34.6 rpg. Jeremiah Dominguez was last year's Big Sky Player of the Year and hasn't disappointed this season either, ranking seventh in the league in scoring at 12.6 ppg. Dominic Waters (11.9 ppg), Phil Nelson (11.2 ppg) and Andre Murray (10.7 ppg) provide plenty of offensive support.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

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